"Guarded optimism."

That's the local economic prognosis for the remainder of this year, according to George Jackson, dean of the Walter R. Davis School of Business and Economics at Elizabeth City State University.

Jackson delivered his mid-year forecast Wednesday at The Pines in Elizabeth City to the Albemarle Area Committee of 100, a growth advocacy group comprised of business leaders.

"We're not in a recession, we're in a slowdown," Jackson said. "There is a reasonable basis for guarded optimism that the local economy will improve during the remainder of 2008 as the national outlook improves."

Jackson said his report includes sample data from the Census Bureau, county governments, industry groups and state agencies. He said his conclusions are non-statistical and meant to serve as an indicator only.

Overall, he said Camden County is holding its own better than Pasquotank and Perquimans counties, and a downturn in the real estate and construction industries should level off and begin to show some growth by the end of the year.

Currituck and Chowan counties were not included in his current report, he said, adding that he wanted to focus on the Elizabeth City area.

Expect growth from the mid-tech industry job sector in the coming year, he said, thanks to the aviation research and commerce park project near Elizabeth City-Pasquotank Regional Airport. The high-paying jobs should boost local employment and retail sales figures, he said.

Meanwhile, local tourism has held its own fairly well, thanks in part to this summer's opening of the new downtown waterfront farm market and an increase in vacationers opting to stay closer to home because of high gasoline prices, he said.

Tourism numbers should gain even more strength, he said, when the new "Center" for performing arts opens at the former Chesson department store, which is being restored, he said.

Looking ahead, Jackson said how well the local area does is dependent on three issues beyond local control:

Crude oil prices, which can fuel inflation, unemployment and downturns in other sectors.

• Deficit spending. A reduction in the federal deficit could help stabilize the value of the dollar and curb inflation.

War in Iraq. A prolonged war funded primarily by the United States would continue to strain the federal budget.

Jackson teaches law and tax courses at ECSU. Every six months, he weeds through dozens of local, state and national reports to come out with an economic forecast.

It's similar to what hurricane specialists do throughout the year, periodically updating their hurricane forecasts. Unlike a busy hurricane season ahead, Jackson doesn't see any economic storms on the horizon that would cripple the local economy in Pasquotank, Camden and Perquimans counties.

That's partly because the local economy is more resilient to the nationwide economic downturn, which has brought some regions to an economic standstill.

Reasons why the local economy is better positioned for better times ahead, Jackson said, include:

Government sector jobs: The highest percentage of jobs in the Elizabeth City area are government-related, which tend to be steadier and better-paying than in other sectors.

Gross domestic product: While leading indicators that measure output of goods and services is flat nationwide, it continues to rise in North Carolina — slowly, but ahead of the national pace and ahead of neighboring states Virginia and South Carolina.

Jackson said overall, Camden County has outshined Pasquotank and Perquimans counties. Here's why:

— Labor force: While jobless claims have risen in Pasquotank and Perquimans counties at rates nearly equal to the national average of 6 percent, Camden County's rate has actually gone down from 5.2 percent in January to 4.9 percent in June.

— Retail sales: Pasquotank's retail sales figures were running at a rate through May of 88 percent of last year's figures, and Perquimans was running at 67 percent compared to the previous year, while in Camden County, sales have already exceeded total numbers for all of 2007, and were running at a rate of 152 percent higher.

— Building activity: In Pasquotank and Perquimans, building permits issued were running behind 2007 figures, while Camden had one month, April, that was up a whopping 1,350 percent over the previous period last year. Camden County Manager Randell Woodruff, who attended Jackson's talk, said that was because builders wanted to get their permits prior to the new $10,000 impact fee that took effect in May.

Meanwhile, the number of real estate foreclosure filings in Pasquotank County through June was 132, more than twice that of the 65 filed in all of 2007, Jackson said. Camden's number was 21, up by 124 percent over the 17 filed last year, while Perquimans has 16 thus far, 94 percent of the 17 filed last year.