Superdelegates pushed to pledge after Pennsylvania race

PHILADELPHIA — The outcome of Pennsylvania's Democratic presidential primary on Tuesday probably will do little to alter the dynamics of the race for pledged delegates between Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton, but it could accelerate the march of superdelegates to one camp or the other, bringing the longest party presidential contest in history closer to an end.

The signs were evident late last week when a handful of prominent Democrats endorsed Obama, including former Sens. Sam Nunn of Georgia, an expert on national security matters, and centrist David Boren of Oklahoma. Robert Reich, who served as Labor Secretary in Bill Clinton's presidency, also announced his support for Obama.

The endorsements came a day after national party chairman Howard Dean urged the superdelegates – elected officials, activists and party insiders – to declare their allegiance to a candidate now instead of waiting until the summer.

The reason?

Democrats are increasingly worried that John McCain, the presumptive Republican nominee, is benefiting from the extra-innings contest between Obama and Clinton, which began more than 15 months ago.

And rightly so, say some experts. Pennsylvania Democrats hold their primary Tuesday, and "the winner is Republican presidential candidate Senator John McCain," said Andrew Polsky, a presidential expert at Hunter College, only half-joking.

In the nearly seven weeks since their big showdown in Ohio and Texas in early March, Obama and Clinton have both stumbled – for example, Obama commenting on how "bitter" economically-strapped small-town voters are, and Clinton claiming falsely that she one came under sniper fire during a trip to Bosnia as first lady.

And rather than taking on McCain, Obama and Clinton have largely attacked each other during the last few weeks, in part because the outcome of Pennsylvania's primary could reverberate loudly through the rest of the primaries and caucuses this spring.

"Senator McCain has been able to join the attacks on the Democrats while escaping serious counter-fire, and his campaign has been handed ammunition it will be able to use to good effect in the fall," Polsky said.

Indeed, Dean, chairman of the Democratic National Committee, told CNN on Thursday that the party "cannot give up two or three months of active campaigning and healing time" before the party's convention in August. The superdelegates "need . . . to say who they're for, starting now."

Roughly 65 percent of the superdelegates have said who they prefer to be the party's nominee, but more than 300 have yet to announce their choice to lead the party against McCain in the fall.

Neither Obama nor Clinton can reach the 2,025 delegates needed to win the nomination on the first convention ballot without superdelegate support, even if one of them wins all the remaining contests with overwhelming majorities, which is unlikely.

Clinton is clinging to a small lead in the polls in Pennsylvania in advance of Tuesday's contest for the state's 158 pledged delegates. But because the delegates will be divided proportionally, the real contest in the state that day is for those 300 or so uncommitted superdelegates.

"The most important constituency in Pennsylvania is not in Pennsylvania – but the superdelegates spread out all over the country," said John Zogby, an independent pollster. "They are looking for clarity," especially on the question "can Obama beat McCain?" he added.

Party leaders will examine the exit polling to see if Obama is attracting the moderates known as "Reagan Democrats" in battleground states like Pennsylvania. They also will analyze the exit polls to determine whether Obama's lackluster debate performance or his comments about economically stressed Americans clinging to guns and church have had any lasting effect.

Still, in Pennsylvania, as in other states that have already held primaries or caucuses, there has been a surge of new voters and independents and Republicans switching to the Democratic Party, a trend that thus far has favored Obama. In Pennsylvania, the state Democratic Party has added a remarkable 300,000 voters to their rolls since January.

Even so, Obama doesn't have to win Pennsylvania just stay close to Clinton, many experts agree. But Clinton has to win in the Keystone State in order to remain a credible alternative to Obama, they add.

A growing number of Democrats would like Clinton to "toss in the towel" so the party can start taking aim at McCain, said Peter Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute. "But as long as she is winning, it will be difficult to convince her she should drop out," he added.