Democratic presidential contest features "warring demographics" of women and blacks

WASHINGTON — Although some Democrats worry about a backlash from African-American voters if frontrunner Barack Obama is denied the nomination by the superdelegates, Hillary Clinton's supporters could pose a problem of their own if their candidate loses.

Clinton's campaign has been sustained by a sizeable majority of what pollsters call "destiny voters" - older women who believe the New York senator is the last chance they will have to see a woman elected president in their lifetime.

Polling data suggests many of Clinton's "destiny voters" may not support frontrunner Barack Obama in the fall should he win the Democratic nomination.

Nonetheless, many experts believe the "warring demographics" in the party will eventually declare peace and unite to prevent what they view as a third Bush administration.

A Gallup Poll released at the end of March set off some alarms in the Democratic Party by revealing that 28 percent of Clinton's supporters in the Democratic primaries would support John McCain, the presumptive Republican nominee, if Obama is the Democratic nominee.

And in the month since, the concern in the party has only deepened amid more polling data indicating that older women, a majority of Clinton's primary vote and a reliable Democratic demographic in general election, are increasingly disenchanted with Obama.

"The only way John McCain wins this race is if Democrats are not united," Democratic National Committee Chairman Howard Dean said last week.

Such concerns have prompted both campaigns to pledge their support to whoever the party nominates this summer.

"We will be united this fall," said Obama campaign spokesman Bill Burton.

"All Democrats will come together in the general election," said Clinton spokesman Jay Carson.

But former DNC Chairman Joe Andrews, in announcing his decision last week to switch his support from Clinton to Obama, said the primary process "has devolved to the point that it's now bad for the Democratic Party."

In the Pennsylvania primary April 22, the last contest between Clinton and Obama, 31 percent of Clinton's supporters in the Keystone State said they would vote for McCain over Obama in the November general election. Another 5 percent of Clinton's supporters in Pennsylvania said they would not vote at all in the fall if Obama heads the Democratic ticket.

Moreover, this week, an Associated Press - Yahoo poll this week found that the number of Clinton voters who do not like Obama has risen from 26 percent last fall to 42 percent as the Democratic contest moves to Indiana and North Carolina and the final month of primaries and caucuses. Four out of 10 white women, the core of Clinton's supporters, expressed a negative view of Obama in the AP-Yahoo poll.

"To be sure, there are few bigots out there and some who just don't like Obama for a variety of reasons, but it is mainly women who are 45 or older," said independent pollster John Zogby. And while women may not be able to claim that the nomination was stolen from Clinton - she trails her rival in the number of regular convention delegates won so far - they are as likely to feel disenfranchised if the party's superdelegates rally behind Obama, Zogby added.

"They are destiny voters," he said. Where African Americans see the 2008 Democratic contest as their first chance to elect a black president, he said, older white women "feel this is the last chance in their lifetime to elect a woman president." So, he added, "This is more than just Hillary versus Obama. This is about warring demographics among different groups, each with a sense of historical destiny."