Clinton may see black backlash if Obama loses

HICKORY, N.C. — It spans the spectrum from moderate to militant, but it's not difficult to tap into a potential backlash among African-American supporters of Barack Obama if superdelegates give the Democratic presidential nomination to Hillary Clinton.

Some in this site of a crucial primary on Tuesday fear it will happen. Some expect it to happen. Some think it could cause a rift in blacks' long-standing allegiance to the Democratic Party.

And some, like Sharon Crosby of Lawndale, N.C., say they'd stay home rather than vote for Clinton in November.

"How would I feel? I would feel cheated, cheated, because it's happened before when the Republicans were winning. Enough of that. There's been just enough of that. We need to do it right," said Crosby, 51, who is self-employed.

And what of forfeiting a basic right blacks fought many years to get?

"I wouldn't feel good about it because I have always voted," she said. "But sometimes you just have to stand for what you believe in, and, no, I wouldn't (vote)."

For Democrats eager to recapture the White House, that's not good news. In a year when close races in a handful of swing states could determine the outcome, neither party can afford erosion in its core.

"We're talking about quite a few swing states in terms of the kinds of states that Democrats would be looking to win," David Bositis of the Joint Center for Political and Economic Studies said in analyzing the potential situation.

In the end, Bositis believes blacks, in large numbers, would fall in line with Clinton, whose candidacy could end if she doesn't win in either North Carolina or Indiana on Tuesday.

Bositis could be right, but, for now, it's not hard to find black supporters of Obama who say there's no way they'd back Clinton.

"I'd feel dissatisfied, really dissatisfied, because I think in other words if (Obama) is leading in all categories and if something like that comes by I know he has been shafted," said Jack Corpening of Valdese, N.C., a retired military man and postal worker. "I'm pretty well seeing that's what's going to happen."

And that would make Corpening a non-voter because he could not bring himself to back Clinton and wouldn't back probable GOP nominee John McCain. It's a scenario he believes could do damage to the black-Democratic alliance.

"When you separate the party it's going to cause a lot of problems, " he said.

Delores Littlejohn of Gastonia is more to the moderate side, excited enough about Obama to hobble on an injured ankle – with members of three other generations of her family – to the Illinois senator's recent appearance at Hickory High School.

Upset though she'd be if Obama is not nominated, Littlejohn, 68, said she'd back Clinton if she prevails.

"I probably wouldn't like it but I still would support her," she said.

Retired telephone company worker Jimmy Jenkins of Lenoir, N.C., 60, is an Obama man who could reluctantly become a Clinton man if she gets the nomination. But he wants her to drop out now.

"I think there are some ego things going on. It's almost like she feels she is anointed to have the presidency," said Jenkins.

In Charlotte, retired educator Althea Rudrow, 74, said she is not sure she could vote for Clinton and is upset with her "because of her negativity."

Clinton spokesman Phil Singer went generic when asked about black voters' concerns about his candidate.

"Both candidates have strong and passionate supporters who we believe will come together to send a Democrat to the White House," Singer said.

Maybe, if you listen to Obama supporters such as Edith Childs, a Greenwood, S.C., councilwoman credited with bringing Obama's signature "Fired up" chant to the campaign.

An optimistic woman by nature, Childs three times refused to even speculate about the possibility of Obama not winning the nomination.

A fourth try – phrased in terms of whether she can guarantee she will in November continue her lifelong record of voting for Democratic presidential nominees – produced this: "Well, kind of, sort of, probably. That's the best I can do."

Charles Surratt and Tony B. Conscious are at the more militant edge of Obama's black support.

At 43, Surratt, of Conover, N.C., is moving from the mortgage industry because of the housing market woes. He is concerned that Clinton could win with fewer votes, fewer states carried and fewer pledged delegates.

"I wouldn't feel very good about the American justice system because the popular vote should be what determines the candidate. It's an unfortunate system that we have superdelegates," Surratt said. "As a matter of fact, if there was civil unrest I'd be the first one on the front line."

He'd back Clinton in November, but only as "the lesser of two evils."

Conscious, hawking Obamarabilia outside the candidate's event at Hickory High School, has gamed out an action plan – part demonstration, part litigation - if Clinton is nominated.

"If the superdelegates give it to Hillary we have got a student movement that would do a march on Washington and on the Democratic convention in Denver. I've got students ready to shut that place down. And . . . if Hillary steals it (Obama) is going to take her to court," he said. "And you know Obama is the best constitutional lawyer in the whole country and they don't want all of their dirt to come out."

Could Conscious, 30 and now living in Los Angeles, vote for Clinton?

"Oh no," he said. "I would vote for (former Georgia Rep.) Cynthia McKinney" who is seeking the Green Party presidential nomination.

If the Democrats spurn Obama, then "whatever happens to America after that is America's fault. I'm out of the equation," Conscious said.

Former Dallas Mayor Ron Kirk, an Obama backer and unsuccessful 2002 candidate to become the first black Texan in the U.S. Senate, cautions against reading too much into the rhetoric du jour.

"Asking people (now) what they think is not at all going to be indicative of how they're going to behave in November," Kirk said.

"I'm as guilty as anyone of parroting some of that," he added of anti-Clinton talk.

"Senator Clinton, if you believe her rhetoric that she's uniquely suited to lead the country . . . she ought to be good enough based on her background and experience to win without having to kneecap Barack Obama," Kirk said. "The tenor and tone of her campaign speaks for itself."

Political scientists who study black voting patterns say Kirk is right in cautioning against confusing April anger with November action.

"Some if it is an expression of frustration and anger of the moment," said Michael Fauntroy of George Mason University. "Some of them say they are not going to vote for Hillary Clinton. Many of the people who say that will ultimately end up voting for Hillary Clinton because they will conclude that the McCain alternative is unacceptable."

But Fauntroy warns against underestimating the depth of black suspicions about what's going on.

"I believe this is a very touchy subject because there are some African-Americans who are so distrustful of the political system that they believe that it is going to be stolen from them anyway," he said. "If Obama does not end up with the nomination these voters are going to feel he had it stolen from him."

Even a sliver of black resentment to Clinton could make a difference in swing states such as Missouri, Pennsylvania, Florida and Illinois if blacks don't back her, according to Fauntroy.

Fauntroy's comments are informed by what he hears on his weekly radio talk show in Chicago.

"The general feeling is it is going to be stolen from Obama in some kind of way, and Clinton and McCain are in cahoots to shut out Obama," he said.

Ron Walters, a University of Maryland political scientist who advised Jesse Jackson's campaigns, also has heard the talk.

"People have used all of those terms – cheated, stolen – and more. And the thing of it is the passion," he said. "It's going to probably cost the Democrats from 8-10 percentage points this fall and that could decide the election. At least half of those people probably mean what they say."

Obama backers B.J. Murphy and Craig Madans hear the frustration from their perches as hosts of talk shows on WGIV, a Charlotte radio station with a large black audience.

"I think we won't be surprised if something funky happens and it was taken away from Obama. This is the way it's always been," Murphy said.

Madans said he hears a heavy dose of "why bother?" among black listeners convinced Obama will be cheated out of the nomination.

"It is going to hurt Hillary in a big way," he predicted.

Madans summarized the prevailing sentiment he picks up from some listeners:

"I didn't vote before because my vote didn't make a difference. Now I've found a guy and there is no reason in the world he shouldn't be the candidate. And now all of a sudden you're telling me he won on popular vote but some technicality says he is not going to be the candidate. Don't ever bother calling me again."

Black Population in Probable Swing States

The United States is 12.4 percent black

State Black population

Florida 15.4 percent

Michigan 14.1 percent

Ohio 11.8 percent

Missouri 11.3 percent

Pennsylvania 10.4 percent

Nevada 7.3 percent

Minnesota 4.4 percent

Colorado 3.7 percent

W. Virginia 3.2 percent

Iowa 2.3 percent

New Mexico 2.0 percent

Oregon 1.7 percent

New Hampshire 1.1 percent